Large deviations for polling systems

Related INRIA Research report available at : http://hal.inria.fr/docs/00/07/27/62/PDF/RR-3892.pdfInternational audienceWe aim at presenting in short the technical report, which states a sample path large deviation principle for a resealed process n-1 Qnt, where Qt represents the joint number of clients at time t in a single server 1-limited polling system with Markovian routing. The main goal is to identify the rate function. A so-called empirical generator is introduced, which consists of Q t and of two empirical measures associated with S t the position of the server at time t. The analysis relies on a suitable change of measure and on a representation of fluid limits for polling systems. Finally, the rate function is solution of a meaningful convex program

Genital warts and infection with human immunodeficiency virus in high-risk women in Burkina Faso: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: Human papillomaviruses are the most common sexually transmitted infections, and genital warts, caused by HPV-6 and 11, entail considerable morbidity and cost. The natural history of genital warts in relation to HIV-1 infection has not been described in African women. We examined risk factors for genital warts in a cohort of high-risk women in Burkina Faso, in order to further describe their epidemiology. METHODS: A prospective study of 765 high-risk women who were followed at 4-monthly intervals for 27 months in Burkina Faso. Logistic and Cox regression were used to identify factors associated with prevalent, incident and persistent genital warts, including HIV-1 serostatus, CD4+ count, and concurrent sexually transmitted infections. In a subset of 306 women, cervical HPV DNA was tested at enrollment. RESULTS: Genital wart prevalence at baseline was 1.6% (8/492) among HIV-uninfected and 7.0% (19/273) among HIV-1 seropositive women. Forty women (5.2%) experienced at least one incident GW episode. Incidence was 1.1 per 100 person-years among HIV-uninfected women, 7.4 per 100 person-years among HIV-1 seropositive women with a nadir CD4+ count >200 cells/μL and 14.6 per 100 person-years among HIV-1 seropositive women with a nadir CD4+ count ≤ 200 cells/μL. Incident genital warts were also associated with concurrent bacterial vaginosis, and genital ulceration. Antiretroviral therapy was not protective against incident or persistent genital warts. Detection of HPV-6 DNA and abnormal cervical cytology were strongly associated with incident genital warts. CONCLUSIONS: Genital warts occur much more frequently among HIV-1 infected women in Africa, particularly among those with low CD4+ counts. Antiretroviral therapy did not reduce the incidence or persistence of genital warts in this population

Human papillomavirus genotype distribution and cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions among high-risk women with and without HIV-1 infection in Burkina Faso

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs) were studied in 379 high-risk women. Human papillomavirus DNA was detected in 238 of 360 (66.1%) of the beta-globin-positive cervical samples, and 467 HPV isolates belonging to 35 types were identified. Multiple (2–7 types) HPV infections were observed in 52.9% of HPV-infected women. The most prevalent HPV types were HPV-52 (14.7%), HPV-35 (9.4%), HPV-58 (9.4%), HPV-51 (8.6%), HPV-16 (7.8%), HPV-31 (7.5%), HPV-53 (6.7%), and HPV-18 (6.4%). Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) seroprevalence was 36.0%. Human papillomavirus prevalence was significantly higher in HIV-1-infected women (87 vs 54%, prevalence ratio (PR)=1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4–1.8). High-risk HPV types (71 vs 40%, PR=1.79, 95% CI: 1.5–2.2), in particular HPV-16+18 (22 vs 9%, PR=2.35, 95% CI: 1.4–4.0), and multiple HPV infections (56 vs 23%, PR=2.45, 95% CI: 1.8–3.3) were more prevalent in HIV-1-infected women. High-grade SIL (HSIL) was identified in 3.8% of the women. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection was strongly associated with presence of HSIL (adjusted odds ratio=17.0; 95% CI 2.2–134.1, P=0.007) after controlling for high-risk HPV infection and other risk factors for HSIL. Nine of 14 (63%) HSIL cases were associated with HPV-16 or HPV-18 infection, and might have been prevented by an effective HPV-16/18 vaccine

Investing in the future: lessons learnt from communicating the results of HSV/ HIV intervention trials in South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Communicating the results of randomised controlled trials may present challenges for researchers who have to work with communities and policy-makers to anticipate positive outcomes, while being aware that results may show no effect or harm.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present a case study from the perspective of researchers in South Africa about the lessons learnt from communicating the results of four trials evaluating treatment for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) as a new strategy for HIV prevention.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We show that contextual factors such as misunderstandings and mistrust played an important role in defining the communications response. Use of different approaches in combination was found to be most effective in building understanding, credibility and trust in the research process. During the communication process, researchers acted beyond their traditional role of neutral observers and became agents of social change. This change in role is in keeping with a global trend towards increased communication of research results and presents both opportunities and challenges for the conduct of future research.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite disappointing trial results which showed no benefit of HSV-2 treatment for HIV prevention, important lessons were learnt about the value of the communication process in building trust between researchers, community members and policy-makers, and creating an enabling environment for future research partnerships.</p

Estimating the Impact of Plasma HIV-1 RNA Reductions on Heterosexual HIV-1 Transmission Risk

Background: The risk of sexual transmission of HIV-1 is strongly associated with the level of HIV-1 RNA in plasma making reduction in HIV-1 plasma levels an important target for HIV-1 prevention interventions. A quantitative understanding of the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA and HIV-1 transmission risk could help predict the impact of candidate HIV-1 prevention interventions that operate by reducing plasma HIV-1 levels, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), therapeutic vaccines, and other non-ART interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We use prospective data collected from 2004 to 2008 in East and Southern African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples to model the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and heterosexual transmission risk with confirmation of HIV-1 transmission events by HIV-1 sequencing. The model is based on follow-up of 3381 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples over 5017 person-years encompassing 108 genetically-linked HIV-1 transmission events. HIV-1 transmission risk was 2.27 per 100 person-years with a log-linear relationship to log10 plasma HIV-1 RNA. The model predicts that a decrease in average plasma HIV-1 RNA of 0.74 log10 copies/mL (95% CI 0.60 to 0.97) reduces heterosexual transmission risk by 50%, regardless of the average starting plasma HIV-1 level in the population and independent of other HIV-1-related population characteristics. In a simulated population with a similar plasma HIV-1 RNA distribution the model estimates that 90% of overall HIV-1 infections averted by a 0.74 copies/mL reduction in plasma HIV-1 RNA could be achieved by targeting this reduction to the 58% of the cohort with plasma HIV-1 levels ≥4 log10 copies/mL. Conclusions/Significance: This log-linear model of plasma HIV-1 levels and risk of sexual HIV-1 transmission may help estimate the impact on HIV-1 transmission and infections averted from candidate interventions that reduce plasma HIV-1 RNA levels

Seroprevalence and risk factors of herpes simplex virus type-2 infection among pregnant women in Northeast India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) is one of the most common sexually transmitted infections that facilitate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition by over two fold or more. The development of HSV-2 control methods as a measure to control HIV epidemic in high HSV-2/HIV areas has become a priority. Two out of the six high HIV prevalent states of India are located in the Northeastern region of India. Due to lack of documented HSV-2 studies from this part of the country; there was a need for estimating the seroprevalence and risk factors of HSV-2 infection in this defined population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Pregnant women (n = 1640) aged18 years and above attending antenatal clinics of tertiary referral hospitals in five Northeastern states of India were screened for type specific HSV-2 IgG antibodies. Blood samples were collected from all the participants after conducting interviews. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the risk factors associated with HSV-2 seropositivity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall seroprevalence of HSV-2 infection was 8.7% (142/1640; 95% CI 7.3-10.0) with a highest prevalence of 15.0% (46/307; 95% CI 11.0-19.0) in the state of Arunachal Pradesh. Higher seroprevalence was observed with increasing age (Adj. Odds Ratio [AOR] 1.9 for 22-25 years old, AOR 2.29 for > 29 years old). The risk factors associated with HSV-2 seropositives were multiple sex partners (AOR 2.5, <it>p </it>= 0.04), condom non-user's (AOR 4.7, p <it><</it>0.001), early coitarchal age (age of first intercourse) 'less than 18 years' (AOR 9.6, <it>p = </it>0.04), middle income group (AOR 2.1, <it>p = </it>0.001) compared to low income group and low level of education (AOR 3.7, <it>p = </it>0.02) compared to higher education. HSV-2 seropositivity was higher among Christians (12.6%) compared to Muslims (3.8%). The most frequent clinical symptoms among HSV-2 seropositives were excess vaginal discharge in last one year (53.5%, 76/142) and pelvic pain (26.1%, 37/142). While among subjects with genital ulcers, HSV-2 seroprevalence was 36.8% (7/19).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Overall seroprevalence of HSV-2 infection among pregnant women of Northeast India is relatively low. The generation of awareness among high risk groups may have played key role to limit the infection. The role of vaccination against HSV-2 in near future and elimination of HSV-2 viral shedding along with genital tract inflammation in high HIV/HSV-2 areas may be an option for initiating successful intervention strategies to reduce the transmission and acquisition of HIV infection in Northeast India.</p

Urban environmental quality in two Belgian cities, evaluated on the basis of residential choices and GIS data

Our objective in this paper is to analyse empirically the effects of environmental quality on residential location choices in two Belgian cities, using a detailed description of the urban environment derived from remotely sensed data and using GIS tools. According to urban models which include amenities, environmental quality may influence land rents and location by income in the city. In order to test these relations, average land rents and mean income per district are regressed on distance to the centre and several environmental characteristics, using the instrumental variables method in order to take account of endogeneity. Fourteen environmental variables, representing socioeconomic facilities and natural attributes are obtained from aerial photographs, satellite images, and ancillary data. Their spatial representations are constructed using GIS functions. The empirical results confirm the impact of greenery on location choice and the existence of a higher environmental quality at the periphery than near the centre of the two cities. They also reveal that the impact of environmental quality components on residential location depends on the shape and history of the cities and on the relative scarcity of the environmental attributes

De la restructuration des bassins d'emploi à l'analyse des espaces périurbains en Rhône-Alpes

S'appuyant sur les approches de l'économie spatiale et urbaine et sur celles de la géographie urbaine et en se centrant sur la répartition dans l'espace de la population et des emplois, cette recherche s'interroge sur la place des espaces ruraux dans l'organisation de l'espace rhônalpin. L'étude a été menée en trois temps. Un examen de l'organisation de l'espace rhônalpin en "bassins d'emploi" fait tout d'abord apparaître deux modes d'organisation de la périphérie de ces bassins selon la taille de leur centre. Dans un second temps, l'étude plus précise des espaces périurbains met en évidence que ces espaces sont le plus souvent le reflet des caractéristiques de leur pôle d'influence tant du point de vue morphologique que sociale ou économique. Enfin, dans la logique des approches de l'économie urbaine, l'analyse des valeurs foncières en espace périurbain fait ressortir que, comme les densités de population, ces valeurs diminuent avec la distance au centre d'emploi mais qu'elles sont également soumises à l'influence des caractéristiques locales et des niveaux de l'imposition locale

De la restructuration des bassins d'emploi à l'analyse des espaces périurbains en Rhône-Alpes

S'appuyant sur les approches de l'économie spatiale et urbaine et sur celles de la géographie urbaine et en se centrant sur la répartition dans l'espace de la population et des emplois, cette recherche s'interroge sur la place des espaces ruraux dans l'organisation de l'espace rhônalpin. L'étude a été menée en trois temps. Un examen de l'organisation de l'espace rhônalpin en "bassins d'emploi" fait tout d'abord apparaître deux modes d'organisation de la périphérie de ces bassins selon la taille de leur centre. Dans un second temps, l'étude plus précise des espaces périurbains met en évidence que ces espaces sont le plus souvent le reflet des caractéristiques de leur pôle d'influence tant du point de vue morphologique que sociale ou économique. Enfin, dans la logique des approches de l'économie urbaine, l'analyse des valeurs foncières en espace périurbain fait ressortir que, comme les densités de population, ces valeurs diminuent avec la distance au centre d'emploi mais qu'elles sont également soumises à l'influence des caractéristiques locales et des niveaux de l'imposition locale